- The USD/CHF pair rose for the third consecutive session on Friday after dipping below 0.9126.
- The risk-taking attitude weakened the safe-haven CHF, although it remained supportive.
- The focus was on Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
The weekly forecast for the USD/CHF pair is bearish. However, the bulls may reappear around the 0.9100 mark as tapering impact. After gaining positive momentum for three consecutive sessions on Friday, USD/CHF dropped to 0.9112.
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USD/CHF fundamental forecast
After dipping to 0.9126 on Friday, the USD/CHF pair recovered roughly 30 pips from early European session lows and soared to new daily highs around the 0.9185 level.
Delta concerns eased
The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) awarded full approval to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, easing fears about the economic consequences of the Delta form of the coronavirus.
This increased investor confidence and fueled optimism that inoculations in the US may accelerate, as seen by a generally optimistic tone in the equity markets.
Strengthened bond yields
Meanwhile, the risk-on sentiment worked as a tailwind for US Treasury bond rates, as did speculation that the Fed may yet start unwinding its post-pandemic stimulus in 2020.
This gave the US dollar some support and was regarded as another factor pushing the USD/CHF pair higher, though the upswing lacked significant bullish conviction.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave a vigorous defense of the central bank’s monetary policy in the age of Covid-19 in what may be his final address as chairman of the Federal Reserve while conceding that the rate of asset purchases could slow before the end of 2021.
Powell made it plain in his address that he and the Fed will continue to debate when it would be prudent to reduce bond purchases, based on how the economy performs in the autumn.
Market participants anticipate an announcement when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in September.
Key Data Releases from the US during Aug 30-Sep04
On Friday, Sep 3, we have four main events that can affect USD. They are average hour earnings, non-farm employment change, and services PMI.
When the different emergency unemployment benefits expire in September, and the schools reopen, we’ll have a better understanding that individuals will have to work rather than rely on stimulus payments.
The Fed can continue to debate the benefits of tapering and the timing of rate hikes, but it can’t do anything about fiscal policy.
In August, 750k new jobs are projected to be added, indicating a modest slowdown.
Key Data Releases from Switzerland during Aug 30-Sep04
Swiss statistics for the coming week are restricted to manufacturing PMI, CPI and retail sales. So, there won’t be any major market impacts.
USD/CHF technical analysis: key levels in action
The USD/CAD pair is now attempting to stay above the 0.9120 support level. However, if this effort is successful, the USD/CHF pair will return to the resistance level of 0.9207, which was its weekly high.
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If the resistance level at 0.9207 is successfully tested, the pair can go up to 0.9274, which was August’s high.
A fall below 0.9120 on the support side will push USD/CHF towards the 0.9099 support level. If the USD/CHF falls below this level, it will drop to 0.9072, the next support level.
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